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Bayesian Thinking

Bayesian thinking is built around probabilistic thinking: ‘what is the likelihood of this being correct?’. As new information is learned, incorporate that with the old and adjust the estimated probabilities accordingly.

Beware of recency bias. Just because information is new does not make it more factual or accurate than older information.

Bayesian thinking allows for greyscale beliefs. Confidence fluctuates as new information is brought to bear.

bayesian_thinking.txt · Last modified: 2019/03/26 00:04 by admin